AGI by 2025? Update Your Mental Model to Stay Ahead

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Hi everyone,

This is Lore, the newsletter that helps you thrive in the age of AI.  

Thank you for being a part of 20k+ techno-optimists and growing. 🙏

P.S. Watch the latest episode of The Next Wave with Riley Brown to learn how to create an app entirely with AI in under 45 minutes!

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1) Things Are Getting Better

AlphaFold3, an AI protein-prediction tool created by Google, is now open source. Find the Github repo here.

This is a massive positive for humanity.

This move will empower researchers and small labs to leverage AI for breakthroughs in drug discovery and medical treatments, accelerating work on complex diseases from Alzheimer’s to cancer. This could truly transform medicine, opening up a new era in biotech.

2) AGI by 2025? Update Your Mental Model to Stay Ahead

From recent conversations, it’s clear that even those following AI closely haven’t fully updated their mental model since OpenAI’s release of the groundbreaking o1-preview model.

That’s a huge mistake.

Earlier this year, many experts predicted that AI development might soon hit a wall due to limited data. And we were starting to see signs that things might be slowing down.

But OpenAI’s o1 model—called a “Reasoning Model”—has shifted the paradigm. Unlike previous models, reasoning models “think” in real-time during inference, meaning they don’t rely as heavily on vast datasets for training. This change makes scaling possible without needing exponentially more data—only more compute power.

People in Silicon Valley are now quite confident that with reasoning models we’re going to reach AGI. In a recent interview, OpenAI’s Sam Altman even suggested that AGI could emerge by 2025, with ASI (Artificial Super Intelligence, intelligence far beyond human levels) potentially just “a few thousand days” after that.

If you haven’t adjusted your mental model to reflect this shift, now’s the time. Here’s what to keep in mind:

• AGI may arrive sooner than expected—potentially in 2025.

• Progress isn’t slowing down. Reasoning models are poised to accelerate AI progress. Things are going to happen faster than expected.

• Change will be rapid. Start thinking about how your personal and business strategies can adapt to a world where AGI can handle many of today’s human-led tasks.

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3) Build An App with a Backend Using AI in 45 Minutes

In this week’s episode of The Next Wave, Riley Brown and I built an app from scratch in under 45 minutes—entirely powered by AI tools!

It’s incredible to see how much AI has simplified app development, allowing anyone to build their idea without writing a single line of code.

Tune in to witness the future of app creation in action, and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, and YouTube to catch each new episode.

4) Suno V4 Is Changing Music Forever

Suno, my favorite AI music tool, is about to release V4. And based on what I’m hearing from friends with early access, and demos being shared on X, it’s going to change music forever.

Suno was already really impressive. But, the music I’m hearing from V4 demos is next level. It has more depth than V3. And of course this is subjective, but it feels more “soulful” to me, if that makes any sense. I feel like these songs could have been made by a real human.

This is going to unlock so much creativity by empowering current musicians to do more, and by allowing people who have always wanted to create music but didn’t know how to make things.

I put together a thread of amazing examples here:

5) Things I’m Learning From

• VIDEO: Dario Amodei: Anthropic CEO on Claude, AGI & the Future of AI & Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast - 5 hour episode with the founder of Anthropic about the future of AI. The most interesting AI video you can listen to this week.

• VIDEO: AI News: What Does Trump Mean For AI? - Matt Wolfe’s take on what Trump will mean for AI.

• VIDEO: Trump is About to Change Everything For Tech Startups - Great video between Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz from A16Z discussing how things have already changed for startups in the last week and why they’re more optimistic than ever before for America.

That’s all for today. Please consider sharing the newsletter with your friends if you think they’d enjoy it. 🙏

Please give me feedback on Twitter. I am still figuring out the best format for this newsletter. Which part did you like? Dislike? Do you have other suggestions? Please let me know—just tweet @NathanLands.

-Nathan